Tender price indicator
Forecast for construction demand continues to weaken as investment in buildings and infrastructure is paused or delayed.
Our forecast for 2018 remains at average 1% tender price inflation across the UK, with northern regions experiencing stronger growth than London and the South East. Into 2019 we forecast London and the South East to be broadly flat, with the rest of the UK at 1% average.
Forecasts remain fluid as Brexit negotiations remain unclear. However, downside pricing is becoming more prevalent amongst Tier 2 contractors whilst Tier 1 continue to experience positive pricing on the tail end of major project demand.
Into 2020 and 2021 with the impact of a new international market post Brexit, we can only forecast our long term growth averages, as the overall economic picture remains unclear.
Imported cladding and curtain walling experienced the largest material cost rises during 2017 at 15 to 20% over 2016 levels. The continued fall of Sterling against the Euro may further compound these rises, albeit installation rates have stabilised.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measure of inflation rose to 3% in September, up from 2.9% in August.