Scenarios

Below we have outlined three potential scenarios: Good, Neutral and Poor. Each scenario includes a number of events and conditions which, if they materialise, will have varying impacts on tendering conditions.

By way of comparison we have included a brief summary of the market and tendering conditions we noted in our last TPI report (Q4 2019 TPI) and fed in to our forecasts:

Scenarios Table

Forecasting which scenario will play out, and therefore how tender prices will be impacted, is extremely difficult. However, in the tables and fan graphs below, we provide tender price forecasts for both Greater London and the UK under each of these three scenarios. We have also provided a comparison of our UK-average tender price scenarios against the latest BCIS All-in TPI forecast.

Uk Average Table
Greater London Table